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This study predicted habitat distribution changes according to the current distribu seedtion 14 and future climate using the MaxEnt model for endangered Abies nephrolepis Maxim., which is vulnerable to 15 climate change and is a least-concerned species. This study aimed to predict the current distribution and future habitat distribution changes of the endangered A. nephrolepis under climate change using the MaxEnt model. The purpose was to predict the future habitat of the declining A. nephrolepis, to identify the necessity of in situ conservation, and to devise appropriate ex situ seed storage methods. The study utilized climate data from 513 GPS coordinates of A. nephrolepis habitats in South Korea to predict the changes in habitat distribution using the MaxEnt model. The seeds used in the seed experiment were collected from Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea in 2019. After confirming an initial seed filling, germination tests were performed under constant temperatures of 15, 20, and 25 °C and alternating day/night temperatures of 25/5, 25/10, 25/10, 20/15, 25/15, 30/15, and 35/15 °C. The seed germination conditions were investigated under 10 different temperature settings. For the determination of storage behavior, seeds were dried at a consistent temperature of 15 °C and relative humidity (eRH) levels of 15, 20, 30, 40, and 50%. Subsequently, the seeds were stored for three months at temperatures of −20 °C and 5 °C, and the vitality tests of the seeds were conducted. Based on these experiments, the storage characteristics of seeds were identified. The results indicated that in all SSP scenarios, it is predicted that A. nephrolepis will become extinct in its habitat by the 2090s. Therefore, it has been shown that on-site and ex situ conservation is necessary. As a result of the seed germination characteristics, the highest germination rate (52.5 ± 16.01%) was achieved at a constant temperature of 20 °C, followed by 25 °C (50.0 ± 10.81%) and 25/10 °C (47.5 ± 4.79%). The highest viability was obtained under 20% eRH (64.0 ± 0%) but was not statistically different from that determined immediately after seed collection. The moisture content was approximately 4.33% fresh weight under 15% eRH at 15 °C. A. nephrolepis seeds are classified as orthodox-type seeds, which do not lose viability at 3%–7% moisture content and after drying under 15% eRH conditions at 15 °C. In conclusion, it can be observed that the seeds can be stored long-term at −20 °C. This research was conducted as a basic study to predict the habitat distribution of the endangered species A. nephrolepis and to establish seed conservation methods. According to the results, it is deemed necessary to conduct both domestic and international analyses of the habitat of A. nephrolepis. In addition, the germination and storage characteristics of A. nephrolepis seeds were confirmed, and based on this, effective seed conservation methods were suggested. |
