Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex
| Autor: | Alex D. Crawford, Erica Rosenblum, Jennifer V. Lukovich, Julienne C. Stroeve |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Annals of Glaciology, Vol 64, Pp 236-253 (2023) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 0260-3055 1727-5644 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/aog.2023.42 |
| Popis: | The seasonal ice-free period in the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) has grown longer in recent decades in response to warming, both from progressively earlier sea-ice retreat in summer and later sea-ice advance in fall. Such changes disrupt the HBC ecosystem and ice-based human activities. In this study, we compare 102 simulations from 37 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to the satellite passive microwave record and atmospheric reanalyses. We show that, throughout the HBC, models simulate an ice-free period that averages 30 d longer than in satellite observations. This occurs because seasonal sea-ice advance is unrealistically late and seasonal sea-ice retreat is unrealistically early. We find that much of the ice-season bias can be linked to a warm bias in the atmosphere that is associated with a southerly wind bias, especially in summer. Many models also exhibit an easterly wind bias during winter and spring, which reduces sea-ice convergence on the east side of Hudson Bay and impacts the spatial patterns of summer sea-ice retreat. These results suggest that, for many models, more realistic simulation of atmospheric circulation would improve their simulation of HBC sea ice. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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