Autor: |
Gonghua Wu, Wanfang Zhang, Wenjing Wu, Pengyu Wang, Zitong Huang, Yueqian Wu, Junxi Li, Wangjian Zhang, Zhicheng Du, Yuantao Hao |
Jazyk: |
angličtina |
Rok vydání: |
2024 |
Předmět: |
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Zdroj: |
Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 12 (2024) |
Druh dokumentu: |
article |
ISSN: |
2296-2565 |
DOI: |
10.3389/fpubh.2024.1343950 |
Popis: |
IntroductionAlthough the global COVID-19 emergency ended, the real-world effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the relative contribution of individual NPIs over time were poorly understood, limiting the mitigation of future potential epidemics.MethodsBased on four large-scale datasets including epidemic parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and meteorological factors across 51 states in the United States from August 2020 to July 2022, we established a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spike-and-slab prior to assessing the time-varying effect of NPIs and vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 transmission and identifying important NPIs in the context of different variants pandemic.ResultsWe found that (i) the empirical reduction in reproduction number attributable to integrated NPIs was 52.0% (95%CI: 44.4, 58.5%) by August and September 2020, whereas the reduction continuously decreased due to the relaxation of NPIs in following months; (ii) international travel restrictions, stay-at-home requirements, and restrictions on gathering size were important NPIs with the relative contribution higher than 12.5%; (iii) vaccination alone could not mitigate transmission when the fully vaccination coverage was less than 60%, but it could effectively synergize with NPIs; (iv) even with fully vaccination coverage >60%, combined use of NPIs and vaccination failed to reduce the reproduction number below 1 in many states by February 2022 because of elimination of above NPIs, following with a resurgence of COVID-19 after March 2022.ConclusionOur results suggest that NPIs and vaccination had a high synergy effect and eliminating NPIs should consider their relative effectiveness, vaccination coverage, and emerging variants. |
Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
Externí odkaz: |
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