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Abstract Background Distant metastasis, which occurs at a rate of 25% in patients with esophageal cancer (EC), has a poor prognosis, with previous studies reporting an overall survival of only 3–10 months. However, few studies have been conducted to predict distant metastasis in EC, owing to a dearth of reliable biomarkers. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an accurate model for predicting distant metastasis in patients with EC. Methods A total of 299 EC patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 207) and a validation cohort (n = 92). Logistic univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify clinical independent predictors and create a clinical nomogram. Radiomic features were extracted from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images taken prior to treatment, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was used to screen the associated features, which were then used to develop a radiomic signature. Based on the screened features, four machine learning algorithms were used to build radiomics models. The joint nomogram with radiomic signature and clinically independent risk factors was developed using the logical regression algorithm. All models were validated and compared by discrimination, calibration, reclassification, and clinical benefit. Results Multivariable analyses revealed that age, N stage, and degree of pathological differentiation were independent predictors of distant metastasis, and a clinical nomogram incorporating these factors was established. A radiomic signature was developed by a set of sixteen features chosen from 851 radiomic features. The joint nomogram incorporating clinical factors and radiomic signature performed better [AUC(95% CI) 0.827(0.742–0.912)] than the clinical nomogram [AUC(95% CI) 0.731(0.626–0.836)] and radiomics predictive models [AUC(95% CI) 0.754(0.652–0.855), LR algorithms]. Calibration and decision curve analyses revealed that the radiomics–clinical nomogram outperformed the other models. In comparison with the clinical nomogram, the joint nomogram's NRI was 0.114 (95% CI 0.075–0.345), and its IDI was 0.071 (95% CI 0.030–0.112), P = 0.001. Conclusions We developed and validated the first radiomics–clinical nomogram for distant metastasis in EC which may aid clinicians in identifying patients at high risk of distant metastasis. |
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