Pest occurrence model in current climate – validation study for European domain
| Autor: | Eva Svobodová, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Dubrovský, Daniela Semerádová, Josef Eitzinger, Zdeněk Žalud, Petr Štěpánek |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Vol 61, Iss 1, Pp 205-214 (2013) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1211-8516 2464-8310 |
| DOI: | 10.11118/actaun201361010205 |
| Popis: | The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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