| Autor: |
Shuang Hao, Anders Wörman, Luigia Brandimarte |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Scientific Reports, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-024-76461-3 |
| Popis: |
Abstract This study evaluates the impact of hydroclimate-driven periodic runoff on hydropower operations and production, with a focus on how the forecasted biennial periodicity of runoff time series could affect the efficiency of hydropower generation. Hydrologic stochastic processes are utilized to forecast long-term runoff, and seven hydroclimate scenarios are developed to be input into a production management model, allowing for an analysis of how periodic hydroclimate variations influence hydropower management and output. The results reveal that the biennial alternation between wet and dry years is a key factor affecting hydropower operations in the Dalälven River Basin. Notable differences between wet- and dry-year scenarios were observed in terms of power efficiency, production output, and forecasting accuracy. Operating hydropower systems based on dry-year runoff forecasts in wet years results in a 1.63% decrease in production efficiency and a reduction of 9,104 MWh in power generation. Conversely, applying wet-year forecasts in dry years slightly boosts production efficiency by 0.31% and increases power generation by 7,832 MWh. Scenarios that adhere to biennial periodicity offer the highest forecasting accuracy, particularly when applying dry-year forecasts in dry years in winter and spring, which produce the most precise predictions. In contrast, using dry-year forecasts in wet years results in the lowest forecasting accuracy. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
|
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje |
K zobrazení výsledku je třeba se přihlásit.
|
