Synchrony of biomarker variability indicates a critical transition: Application to mortality prediction in hemodialysis

Autor: Alan A. Cohen, Diana L. Leung, Véronique Legault, Dominique Gravel, F. Guillaume Blanchet, Anne-Marie Côté, Tamàs Fülöp, Juhong Lee, Frédérik Dufour, Mingxin Liu, Yuichi Nakazato
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: iScience, Vol 25, Iss 6, Pp 104385- (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2589-0042
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104385
Popis: Summary: Critical transition theory suggests that complex systems should experience increased temporal variability just before abrupt state changes. We tested this hypothesis in 763 patients on long-term hemodialysis, using 11 biomarkers collected every two weeks and all-cause mortality as a proxy for critical transitions. We find that variability—measured by coefficients of variation (CVs)—increases before death for all 11 clinical biomarkers, and is strikingly synchronized across all biomarkers: the first axis of a principal component analysis on all CVs explains 49% of the variance. This axis then generates powerful predictions of mortality (HR95 = 9.7, p
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