| Autor: |
Andreas Kasis, Stelios Timotheou, Nima Monshizadeh, Marios Polycarpou |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-022-09857-8 |
| Popis: |
Abstract Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic collapse while a relaxed strategy might lead to a high death toll. Motivated by this, we consider the problem of forming intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that optimize the trade-off between the number of deceases and the socio-economic costs. We demonstrate that the healthcare capacity and the testing rate highly affect the optimal intervention strategies. Moreover, we propose an approach that enables practical strategies, with a small number of policies and policy changes, that are close to optimal. In particular, we provide tools to decide which policies should be implemented and when should a government change to a different policy. Finally, we consider how the presented results are affected by uncertainty in the initial reproduction number and infection fatality rate and demonstrate that parametric uncertainty has a more substantial effect when stricter strategies are adopted. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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