Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling
| Autor: | Jiyeon Suh, Jae-Ki Choi, Jeehyun Lee, Sun Hee Park |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, Vol 18, Iss 5 (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 2164-5515 2164-554X 21645515 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468 |
| Popis: | In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004–2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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