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Introduction: Glomerular Research And Clinical Experiments—IgA Nephropathy in Indians (GRACE-IgANI) is the first prospective South Asian IgA nephropathy (IgAN) cohort with prespecified objectives, protocolized longitudinal follow-up, and extensive biosample collection. The baseline risk scores predicted high risk of kidney disease progression. Methods: A total of 195 of 201 patients (97%) completed 3-year follow-up in September 2020. All patients received optimized supportive care, and those at high risk of progression were offered systemic corticosteroids. Results: A total of 76 patients (76 of 193, 39.4%) had rapid progression in 3 years (≥5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] per year). A total of 72 patients (72 of 195, 36.9%) experienced the composite outcome (CO), defined as ≥50% fall in eGFR, eGFR < 15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, commenced kidney replacement therapy or death, in 3 years. At each scheduled follow-up, achievement of proteinuria level < 1 g/d significantly delayed the time to the CO. The receiver operating characteristic curve of average annual decline in eGFR ≥ 5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had 86% sensitivity and 89% specificity for CO in 3 years and had good discrimination from 1 year onwards (area under the curve 0.8, SE 0.04, 95% CI 0.7–0.9, P < 0.0001). The significant predictors of CO by Cox proportional-hazards model were as follows: baseline MEST-T2 score (hazard ratio [HR] 3.3, 95% CI 1.7–6.5, P < 0.001), along with 24-hour urine protein level ≥ 1 g/d (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1–3.9, P = 0.02), eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.6, P = 0.03), and rate of eGFR decline ≥ 5 ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr (HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6–4.8, P < 0.001) all measured at 6 months. Mortality was 11 of 195 (5.6%). Conclusion: We identified longitudinal clinical variables measured at 6 months and ≥5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 annual fall in eGFR after kidney biopsy as important predictors for composite outcome in addition to baseline histology. |
