Bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) Outbreak Duration in Cattle Herds in Ireland: A Retrospective Observational Study

Autor: Andrew W. Byrne, Damien Barrett, Philip Breslin, Jamie M. Madden, James O'Keeffe, Eoin Ryan
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Pathogens, Vol 9, Iss 10, p 815 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2076-0817
DOI: 10.3390/pathogens9100815
Popis: Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreaks, caused by Mycobacterium bovis infection, are a costly animal health challenge. Understanding factors associated with the duration of outbreaks, known as breakdowns, could lead to better disease management policy development. We undertook a retrospective observational study (2012–2018) and employed Finite Mixture Models (FMM) to model the outcome parameter, and to investigate how factors were associated with duration for differing subpopulations identified. In addition to traditional risk factors (e.g., herd size, bTB history), we also explored farm geographic area, parcels/farm fragmentation, metrics of intensity via nitrogen loading, and whether herds were designated controlled beef finishing units (CBFU) as potential risk factors for increased duration. The final model fitted log-normal distributions, with two latent classes (k) which partitioned the population into a subpopulation around the central tendency of the distribution, and a second around the tails of the distribution. The latter subpopulation included longer breakdowns of policy interest. Increasing duration was positively associated with recent (
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