Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Autor: Hien X. Bui, Yi-Xian Li, Eric D. Maloney, Ji-Eun Kim, Sun-Seon Lee, Jia-Yuh Yu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2397-3722
47329114
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z
Popis: Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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