| Autor: |
Christian Ankerstjerne Thilker, Peder Bacher, Davide Cali, Henrik Madsen |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Energy and AI, Vol 9, Iss , Pp 100165- (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2666-5468 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.egyai.2022.100165 |
| Popis: |
This paper proposes non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs to model the air temperature in each room of a Danish school building connected to the local district heating network. To obtain satisfactory models, the authors find it necessary to estimate the solar radiation effect as a function of the time of the day using a B-spline basis expansion. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method for estimating the valve position of the radiator thermostats in each room using modified Hermite polynomials to ensure monotonicity of the estimated curve. The non-linearities require a modification in the estimation procedure: Some parameters are estimated in an outer optimisation, while the usual regression parameters are estimated in an inner optimisation. The models are able to simulate the temperature 24 h ahead with a root-mean-square-error of the predictions between 0.25 °C and 0.6 °C. The models seem to capture the solar radiation gain in a way aligned with expectations. The estimated thermostatic valve functions also seem to capture the important variations of the individual room heat inputs. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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