Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Autor: Antony J. Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay‐Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Richard Cullather, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin L. Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Heiko Goelzer, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Christopher M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Martin Rückamp, Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel, Hélène Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik van deWal, Michiel van denBroeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, Thomas Zwinger
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 48, Iss 16, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091741
Popis: Abstract Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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