Disease Burden of Gallbladder Cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and the Analysis of Its Future Trends

Autor: LIU Shanshan, LI Chuyi, ZHENG Ying, LU Lixia, LI Bin, YU Xiaohui, DANG Zheng
Jazyk: čínština
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Zhongguo quanke yixue, Vol 27, Iss 14, Pp 1742-1749 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1007-9572
DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0709
Popis: Background Gallbladder cancer is featured by difficult early detection, poor treatment effectiveness and high mortality. An in-depth epidemiology research of gallbladder cancer can provide valuable data for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies for gallbladder cancer. Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to estimate its onset age, period, cohort effects and future trends. Methods Data of disease burden of gallbladder cancer, including the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and corresponding standardized rates in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Research (GBD 2019) database from March to June 2023. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using Joinpoint to analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) model was created to predict the incidence of gallbladder cancer in China from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of gallbladder cancer in China significantly rose from 1.58/100 000 in 1990 to 2.01/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 0.82% (95%CI=0.65%-1.00%, P
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals