Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals
| Autor: | Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães, Diego Ricardo Xavier, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Rafael de Castro Catão |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 53 (2020) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1678-9849 0037-8682 |
| DOI: | 10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020 |
| Popis: | Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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