A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan

Autor: Grace Hsiao-Hsuan Jen, Amy Ming-Fang Yen, Chen-Yang Hsu, Sam Li-Sheng Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09863-w
Popis: Abstract Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95–117) in March–June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28–47) in July–September 2020 (p
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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