| Autor: |
Marcus Tolentino Silva, Taís Freire Galvão |
| Jazyk: |
English<br />Portuguese |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, Vol 27 (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1980-5497 |
| DOI: |
10.1590/1980-549720240027 |
| Popis: |
ABSTRACT Objective: To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. Methods: This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Results: There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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