Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Mortality of Hospitalized COVID-19 Elderly Patients from a Tertiary Care Hospital in Thailand

Autor: Mallika Chuansangeam, Bunyarat Srithan, Pattharawin Pattharanitima, Pawit Phadungsaksawasdi
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Medicines, Vol 10, Iss 11, p 59 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2305-6320
DOI: 10.3390/medicines10110059
Popis: Background: Early detection of elderly patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of mortality is vital for appropriate clinical decisions. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality among elderly patients with COVID-19. Methods: In this retrospective study, the medical records of elderly patients aged over 60 who were hospitalized with COVID-19 at Thammasat University Hospital from 1 July to 30 September 2021 were reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. The sum of weighted integers was used as a total risk score for each patient. Results: In total, 138 medical records of patients were reviewed. Four identified variables based on the odds ratio (age, respiratory rate, glomerular filtration rate and history of stroke) were assigned a weighted integer and were developed to predict mortality risk in hospitalized elderly patients. The AUROC of the scoring system were 0.9415 (95% confidence interval, 0.9033–0.9716). The optimized scoring system was developed and a risk score over 213 was considered a cut-off point for high mortality risk. Conclusions: A simple predictive risk score provides an initial assessment of mortality risk at the time of admission with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalized elderly patients with COVID-19.
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