Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation

Autor: Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik, David F. Hendry, Felix Pretis
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Zdroj: Econometrics, Vol 3, Iss 2, Pp 240-264 (2015)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2225-1146
DOI: 10.3390/econometrics3020240
Popis: To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a ‘split-half’ analysis, the simplest specialization of a multiple-path block-search algorithm. Monte Carlo simulations, extended to sequential reduction, confirm the accuracy of nominal significance levels under the null and show retentions when location shifts occur, improving the non-null retention frequency compared to the corresponding impulse-indicator saturation (IIS)-based method and the lasso.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals