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Abstract Background Lacking quantitative evaluations of clinicopathological features and the risk factors for loco-regional recurrence (LRR) in gastric cancer after D2 gastrectomy, we aimed to develop a competing risk nomogram to identify the risk predictors for initial LRR. Methods We retrospectively analysed 1105 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy with D2 resection for stage I-III gastric cancer. A nomogram predicting initial LRR of gastric cancer was conducted based on Fine and Grey’s competing risk analysis. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model were determined using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Decision tree analysis was performed for patient grouping. Results At a median follow-up of 28.4 months, 274 patients developed 373 first recurrence events (local, regional, and distant disease). The median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 16.7 months. Multivariate competing risk analysis showed that age (SHR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.10–2.83, p = 0.031), CEA (SHR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.09–3.46, p = 0.024), pT4 (SHR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.01–7.57, p = 0.047), lymph node metastasis (SHR 1.92, 95% CI: 1.09–3.38, p = 0.024) and LVI (SHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.06–3.20, p = 0.028) were independent risk factors for LRR (all p |
