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The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is located in the sensitive zone of the Pearl River Delta estuary. Here, natural conditions are complicated, human activities are strong and natural disasters such as typhoons, floods, landslides, debris flow, ground settlements, and ground collapses are frequent that have caused severe damage to urban operations, property, and transportation, and a threat to human safety. Therefore, improving the ability of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration to deal with natural disasters and its resilience is one of the important issues that need to be resolved in urban development and construction. This study examined the social vulnerability of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from the perspective of disaster prevention and mitigation and proposed several optimization strategies to reduce social vulnerability. Firstly, an urban disaster social vulnerability evaluation index system was established based on four aspects: population, economy, infrastructure, and social organization guarantee. Secondly, based on the information entropy method of objective empowerment, a quantitative evaluation model of social vulnerability was established, the vulnerability index of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration was calculated, and the law of vulnerability and its influence on the evolution of social vulnerability in various cities were analyzed. Finally, optimization suggestions were proposed to reduce social vulnerability, based on a demanding perspective. The results showed that the average social vulnerability index of nine cities from 2010 to 2020 showed a trend, which initially increased and then decreased. The social vulnerability index changed significantly for each city and no significant rule was evident. Guangzhou had the lowest social vulnerability, whereas Zhaoqing had the highest. Moreover, in 2010, the level of social vulnerability in Shenzhen was low; Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Foshan were relatively low; Foshan, Dongguan, and Zhongshan were medium, and Huizhou, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing were high. In 2015, the level of social vulnerability in Guangzhou and Zhuhai were low; Shenzhen was relatively low; Foshan, Huizhou, and Zhongshan were medium, and Jiangmen, Dongguan, and Zhaoqing were high. In 2020, the level in Guangzhou and Zhuhai were low; Foshan was relatively low; Jiangmen, Shenzhen, and Huizhou were medium; and Zhongshan, Dongguan, and Zhaoqing were high. In addition, the factors affecting the social vulnerability of each city were significantly different; however, economic vulnerability and social organization security vulnerability were the main factors. By scientifically formulating urban spatial planning five perspectives were proposed: conducting scientific assessments of urban resilience level, promoting the construction of urban resilience systems, promoting the integration of blue, green, and grey disaster prevention infrastructure, establishing urban agglomeration disaster prevention and resilience management systems, and optimization strategies for promoting resilience of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. The selection of a natural disaster social vulnerability evaluation index system for urban agglomeration is subjective and uncertain; this aspect was also realized during the selection of the index system for this study's Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. Therefore, the next step is to further improve the evaluation index system. In addition, a comparison of supplementary verification data or multi-data evaluation methods will be used to further improve the results of the social vulnerability assessment of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for improving the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capacity and resilience of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. |
