A dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price.

Autor: Toppinen, Anne, Hänninen, Riitta, Laaksonen, Susanna
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 1996
Předmět:
Zdroj: Silva Fennica, Vol 30, Iss 4 (1996)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2242-4075
DOI: 10.14214/sf.a8505
Popis: This study investigates the relationship between Finnish sulphate pulp export prices and international pulp inventories using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980-94. Granger causality is found to exist from inventory to price but not vice versa. A simple short-run forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price is formed. In preliminary analysis, the explanatory power of model is found to be acceptable but only under stable market conditions.
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