Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
| Autor: | Z. Ye, W. W. Hsieh |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2008 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 15, Iss 5, Pp 793-801 (2008) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| Popis: | The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to longer-period oscillations, thus greater predictability. In the Lorenz (1963) 3-component chaos system, by adjusting the model parameters to increase the nonlinearity of the system, a similar increase in predictability was found. Thus in the ENSO and Lorenz systems, enhanced nonlinearity from changes in the governing equations could produce longer period oscillations with increased predictability. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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