Maximizing and evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate programs: A modeling study.

Autor: Kyra H Grantz, Elizabeth C Lee, Lucy D'Agostino McGowan, Kyu Han Lee, C Jessica E Metcalf, Emily S Gurley, Justin Lessler
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLoS Medicine, Vol 18, Iss 4, p e1003585 (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1549-1277
1549-1676
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003585
Popis: BackgroundTest-trace-isolate programs are an essential part of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control that offer a more targeted approach than many other nonpharmaceutical interventions. Effective use of such programs requires methods to estimate their current and anticipated impact.Methods and findingsWe present a mathematical modeling framework to evaluate the expected reductions in the reproductive number, R, from test-trace-isolate programs. This framework is implemented in a publicly available R package and an online application. We evaluated the effects of completeness in case detection and contact tracing and speed of isolation and quarantine using parameters consistent with COVID-19 transmission (R0: 2.5, generation time: 6.5 days). We show that R is most sensitive to changes in the proportion of cases detected in almost all scenarios, and other metrics have a reduced impact when case detection levels are low (ConclusionsEffective test-trace-isolate programs first need to be strong in the "test" component, as case detection underlies all other program activities. Even moderately effective test-trace-isolate programs are an important tool for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and can alleviate the need for more restrictive social distancing measures.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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