Parametric analysis of the transmission dynamics during indigenous aggregated outbreaks caused by five SARS-CoV-2 strains in Nanjing, China

Autor: Tao Ma, Cong Chen, Junjun Wang, Hengxue Wang, Yueyuan Zhao, Yuanzhao Zhu, Zikang Yan, Songning Ding, Jie Ding
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 12 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2296-2565
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1358577
Popis: BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 strains have been of great concern due to their high infectivity and antibody evasion.MethodsIn this study, data were collected on indigenous aggregated outbreaks in Nanjing from January 2020 to December 2022, caused by five strains including the original strain, the Delta variant, and the Omicron variant (BA.2, BA.5.2, and BF.7). The basic epidemiological characteristics of infected individuals were described and then parametric analysis of transmission dynamics was performed, including the calculation of incubation period, serial interval (SI), the basic reproductive number (R0), and the household secondary attack rate (HSAR). Finally, we compared the trends of transmission dynamic parameters of different strains.ResultsThe incubation period for the original strain, the Delta variant, Omicron BA.2, Omicron BA.5.2, and Omicron BF.7 were 6 d (95% CI: 3.5–7.5 d), 5 d (95% CI: 4.0–6.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0–4.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0–3.0 d), and 2 d (95% CI: 2.0–3.0 d), respectively; Also, the SI of the five strains were 5.69 d, 4.79 d, 2.7 d, 2.12 d, and 2.43 d, respectively. Notably, the incubation period and SI of the five had both a progressive shortening trend (p
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