Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting
| Autor: | Najmeh Neshat, Hengameh Hadian, Matineh Behzad |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Management Science Letters, Vol 8, Iss 6, Pp 581-592 (2018) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1923-9335 1923-9343 |
| DOI: | 10.5267/j.msl.2018.4.032 |
| Popis: | With the rapid increase of energy demand, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate energy demand forecasts. To incorporate long time causal relationships, autoregressive with exoge-nous regression components models have received increasing attention from many researchers in this field. These are linear models applied through hybrid methodology of time series and econo-metrics, however, some recent studies find evidences that nonlinear models outperform over linear ones in long term peak demand forecasting. This paper proposed a nonlinear Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs (N-ARIMAX) model to forecast sectoral peak demand using a case study of Iran. The results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the existing models. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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