Predictability of the Most Long‐Lived Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023) During Its Westward Journey Through the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

Autor: Hao‐Yan Liu, Masaki Satoh, Jian‐Feng Gu, Lili Lei, Jianping Tang, Zhe‐Min Tan, Yuqing Wang, Jing Xu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 20, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105729
Popis: Abstract This study aimed to explore the predictability of the most long‐lived tropical cyclone (TC) Freddy in 2023 while it traversed westward across the southern tropical Indian Ocean during the first 18 days of its existence. Global ensemble forecasts revealed southward track deflection and intensity underestimation of Freddy. We identified three key factors contributing to the limited predictability of Freddy, which are associated with the Mascarene High, Storm Dingani, and Freddy itself. The large track errors of Freddy can be attributed to the underestimated strength of the Mascarene High, the more northeastern position of Dingani, and the presence of excessively large or small sizes of Freddy. These findings were further validated through a high‐resolution regional model. Specifically, Freddy's track and intensity most closely matched the observations when these three factors were most closely represented. It underscores the pivotal role played by the interaction between TCs and multi‐scale systems in TC forecasts.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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