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Forest fires can occur suddenly and have significant environmental, economic, and social consequences. The timely and accurate evaluation and prediction of their progression, particularly the spread speed in difficult-to-access areas, are essential for emergency management departments to proactively implement prevention strategies and extinguish fires using scientific methods. This paper provides an analysis of models for predicting forest fire spread in China and globally. Incorporating remote sensing (RS) technology and forest fire science as the theoretical foundation, and utilizing the Wang Zhengfei forest fire spread model (1983), which is noted for its broad adaptability in China as the technical framework, this study constructs a forest fire spread model based on remote sensing interpretation. The model improves the existing model by adding elevation an factor and optimizes the method for acquiring certain parameters. By considering regional landforms (ridge lines, valley lines, and slopes) and vegetation coverage, this paper establishes three-dimensional visual interpretation markers for identifying hotspots; the orientation of the hotspots can be identified to simulate the spread of the fire uphill, downhill, in the direction of the wind, left-level slope, and right-level slope. Then, the data of Sentinel-2 and DEM were used to invert the fuel humidity and slope of pixels in the fire line areas. The statistical inversion data from pixels, which replaced fixed-point values in traditional models, were utilized for predicting forest fire spread speed. In this paper, the model was applied to the case of a forest fire in Mianning County, Sichuan Province, China, and verified using high-time-resolution Himawari-8 data, Gaofen-4 data, and historical data. The results demonstrate that the direction and maximum speed of fire spread for the fire lines in Baifen Mountai, Jiaguer Villageand, Muchanggou, Xujiabaozi, and Zhaizigou are uphill, 16.5 m/min; wind direction, 17.32 m/min; wind direction, 1.59 m/min; and wind direction, 5.67 m/min. The differences are mainly due to the locations of the fire lines, moisture content of combustibles, and maximum slopes being different. Across the entire fire line area, the average rate of increase in the area of open flames within one hour was 3.257 hm2/10 min (square hectares per 10 min), closely matching the average increase rate (3.297 hm2/10 min) monitored by the Himawari-8 satellite in 10 min intervals. In contrast, conventional fixed-point fire spread models predicted an average rate of increase of 3.5637 hm2/10 min, which shows a larger discrepancy compared to the Himawari-8 satellite monitoring results. Moreover, when compared to the fire spot monitoring results from the Gaofen-4 satellite taken 54 min after the initial location of the fire line, the predictions from the RS-enabled fire spread model, which integrates remote sensing interpretations, closely matched the actual observed fire boundaries. Although the predictions from the RS-enabled fire spread model and the traditional model both align with historical data in terms of the overall fire development trends, the RS-enabled model exhibits higher reliability and can provide more accurate information for forest fire emergency departments, enabling effective pre-emptive measures and scientific firefighting strategies. |
