Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022

Autor: Jingyuan Dai, Yun Xiao, Qionglian Sheng, Jing Zhou, Zhe Zhang, Fenglong Zhu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMC Public Health, Vol 24, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-20033-7
Popis: Abstract Background By analysing the deaths of inpatients in a tertiary hospital in Hangzhou, this study aimed to understand the epidemiological distribution characteristics and the composition of the causes of death. Additionally, this study aimed to predict the changing trend in the number of deaths, providing valuable insights for hospitals to formulate relevant strategies and measures aimed at reducing mortality rates. Methods In this study, data on inpatient mortality at a tertiary hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022 were obtained via the population information registration system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The death data of inpatients were described and analysed through a retrospective study. Excel 2016 was utilized for data sorting, and SPSS 22.0 software was employed for data analysis. The statistical inference of single factor differences was conducted via χ2 tests. The SARIMA model was established via the forecast, aTSA, and tseries software packages (version 4.3.0) to forecast future changes in the number of deaths. Results A total of 1938 inpatients died at the tertiary hospital in Hangzhou, with the greatest number of deaths occurring in 2022 (262, 13.52%). The sex ratio was 2.22:1, and there were significant differences between sexes in terms of age, marital status, educational level, and place of residence (P
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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