Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Autor: Rachel J. Oidtman, Elisa Omodei, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Erica Cruz-Rivera, Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón, Myriam Patricia Cifuentes, Luz Emilse Rincon, Viviana Cañon, Pedro de Alarcon, Guido España, John H. Huber, Sarah C. Hill, Christopher M. Barker, Michael A. Johansson, Carrie A. Manore, Robert C. Reiner, Jr., Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Enrique Frias-Martinez, Manuel García-Herranz, T. Alex Perkins
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0
Popis: Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals