A new model to analyze urban flood risk. Case study: Veracruz, Mexico

Autor: Ángel Emmanuel Zúñiga Tovar, David A. Novelo Casanova, Christian Domínguez, Marcelino García Benítez, Violeta Piña
Jazyk: English<br />Spanish; Castilian
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nova Scientia, Vol 14, Iss 28 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2007-0705
DOI: 10.21640/ns.v14i28.2956
Popis: Due to their frequency and magnitude, urban floods affect different regions of the world. For this reason, several methodologies integrate information on hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) using a «Classic» Risk (R) model for risk analysis. However, this combination of variables generally overestimates the risk in places where the frequency of flooding is low. In this work we propose a model that we call «Adjusted Risk» (AR) that integrates values ​​of urban proximity (p) to bodies of water, as a tool to assess the risk of floods. The comparison between the R and AR models showed a higher efficiency of AR to reproduce the frequency of floods for 210 cities in Veracruz, while R overestimated the level of risk in cities with low frequency of floods. The correlation values ​​associated with the frequency of flood events for a period of 45 years (1970-2015), allow to establish the utility of the AR model to evaluate the risk of urban floods when using different scales of analysis.
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