Thirteen‐year trends in risk scores predictive values for subsequent stroke in patients with acute ischemic event

Autor: Yunyun Xiong, Shang Wang, Zixiao Li, Marc Fisher, Liyuan Wang, Yong Jiang, Xinying Huang, Xing‐Quan Zhao, Xia Meng, Yongjun Wang
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Brain and Behavior, Vol 13, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2162-3279
DOI: 10.1002/brb3.2962
Popis: Abstract Introduction A high residual risk of subsequent stroke suggested that the predictive ability of Stroke Prognosis Instrument‐II (SPI‐II) and Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) may have changed over the years. Aim To explore the predictive values of the SPI‐II and ESRS for 1‐year subsequent stroke risk in a pooled analysis of three consecutive national cohorts in China over 13 years. Results In the China National Stroke Registries (CNSRs), 10.7% (5297/50,374) of the patients had a subsequent stroke within 1 year; area under the curve (AUC) of SPI‐II and ESRS was .60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .59–.61) and .58 (95% CI: .57–.59), respectively. For SPI‐II, the AUC was .60 (95% CI: .59–.62) in CNSR‐I, .60 (95% CI: .59–.62) in CNSR‐II, and .58 (95% CI: .56–.59) in CNSR‐III over the past 13 years. The declining trend was also found in ESRS scale (CNSR‐I: .60 [95% CI: .59–.61]; CNSR‐II: .60 [95% CI: .59–.62]; and CNSR‐III: .56 [95% CI: .55–.58]). Conclusions The predictive power of the traditional risk scores SPI‐II and ESRS was limited and gradually decreased over the past 13 years, thus the scales may not be useful for current clinical practice. Further derivation of risk scales with additional imaging features and biomarkers may be warranted.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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