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Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major contributor to mortality in the general population. Understanding the factors that drive this process will help delay progression of CKD. The study aimed to estimate the risks of kidney failure and death prior to and after the development of kidney failure among patients with pre-existing CKD, and to identify potential prognostic factors. Method Data were obtained from patients with CKD from Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand from 1997 to 2011. The probability of each transition (i.e., CKD➔death (T1), CKD➔kidney failure (T2), and kidney failure➔death (T3)) was estimated using a competing risk model. A parametric survival model with restricted cubic spline function was applied to assess prognostic factors. Illness-death models were constructed for the 3 transitions. Among 32,106 patients with CKD, 5576 (17.4%), 4768 (14.9%), and 3056 (9.5%) respectively moved through T1, T2, and T3. Results Diabetics had 22.6%, 13.5%, and 60.7% higher risks of T1, T2, and T3 than non-diabetics respectively (p |
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