| Popis: |
Over the course of history there have been several and significant changes in the methods and technologies used to move people and things. Innovations typically follow the distributive and social needs of their time but in some cases they drive or at least contribute to the social and economic evolution of human communities. The paper is based on the hypothesis that transport system innovations occur with different speeds and have impacts of different magnitude in different historical moments. Changes can thus be classified as revolutions or as evolutions depending on weather they (contribute to) change societal, economic and/or territorial systems in a relatively short time period or not. In this paper, analysing the history of humanity, six transport revolutions and several evolutions following over time have been identified, extending and re-defining the ideas of Gilbert and Pearl (2010). We suggest that transportation systems are undergoing a seventh revolutionary phase due to the combined effects of three main drivers. These are innovations in energy sources and their transmission, developments of connected and autonomous vehicles for all transportation modes, and new smart mobility services. As for past revolutions it's impossible anticipate the extent of change it will bring about, both in the transportation market and in society at large. According to the “law of unintended consequences” of previous revolutions, the combined effects of the three drivers will likely further amplify the scope of possible changes. These changes can have positive, neutral or negative effects on short to medium term for environmental, social and economic sustainability of freights and passengers transportation. The paper starts with a synthetic description of previous transport revolutions, as proposed by the Authors. The main elements of the seventh transport revolution are then discussed together with some possible interactions among them. Finally the paper analyses some opportunities and risks connected to the ongoing innovation with respect to environmental, social ed economic sustainability. The perception of the current time as a revolutionary phase should change the approach of researchers and practitioners in the wide field of transportation system analysis with respect to the last evolutionary decades. Future research, in addition to sector specific evolutions, should focus on the actual holistic deployment of the seventh revolution trying to continuously update its combined effects and anticipate as much as possible its trajectory in order to reduce undesirable ones while boasting desirable ones. Future transport policies, especially in urban areas, will have to take into account the opportunities and risks deriving from the ongoing transport revolution as well as the resulting level of uncertainty. |
