Toward Reproducible Environmental Modeling for Decision Support: A Worked Example

Autor: Jeremy T. White, Linzy K. Foster, Michael N. Fienen, Matthew J. Knowling, Brioch Hemmings, James R. Winterle
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 8 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2296-6463
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.00050
Popis: A fully worked example of decision-support-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter estimation (PE) is presented. The analyses are implemented for an existing groundwater flow model of the Edwards aquifer, Texas, USA, and are completed in a script-based workflow that strives to be transparent and reproducible. High-dimensional PE is used to history-match simulated outputs to corresponding state observations of spring flow and groundwater level. Then a hindcast of a historical drought is made. Using available state observations recorded during drought conditions, the combined UQ and PE analyses are shown to yield an ensemble of model results that bracket the observed hydrologic responses. All files and scripts used for the analyses are placed in the public domain to serve as a template for other practitioners who are interested in undertaking these types of analyses.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals