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PRINCIPLES: As a result of the relatively low sensitivity of coronary risk charts, such as the Swiss coronary risk calculator (Arbeitsgruppe Lipide und Atherosklerose, AGLA), for detecting subjects with future myocardial infarction, the performance of arterial age (aa) as a surrogate marker for chronological age (ca) was tested. METHODS: In a practice based sample, burden of carotid plaque was obtained with ultrasound, using total plaque area (TPA). In this derivation cohort, sex-specific 5-year groups of mean TPA were calculated in subjects aged between 35 and 79 years. The arterial age formula was found by fitting an exponential function on these data. AGLAca and AGLAaa were tested externally for their ability to detect 13 myocardial infarctions in 684 subjects (validation cohort). RESULTS: The derivation cohort included 1,500 subjects (mean age 59 ± 9 years, mean TPA 54 ± 52 mm2, 5% diabetics, 43% women). Arterial age was found to be y = 5.4175e0.0426x in men and y = 4.1942e0.0392x in women. Mean 10-year AGLAca coronary risk was comparable to AGLAaa (8% ± 9% vs 9% ± 15%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of AGLAca and AGLAaa results showed areas under the curve of 0.65 (p = 0.041) and 0.78 (p |
