Causal Analysis Discovers an Enhanced Impact of Tropical Western Pacific on Indian Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Anomalies

Autor: Danni Du, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Weiqing Han, Urmi Ninad, Jakob Runge
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106431
Popis: Abstract Existing studies have shown changes in the impact of atmospheric teleconnections on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) at interannual time scales due to the changing background state. However, the exploration of potential changes at subseasonal time scales remains limited. In this study, we use a causal discovery method to find the tropical atmospheric drivers of ISM subseasonal anomalies, and quantify the causal effects of the drivers on ISM, as well as the changes in causal effects over the past 40 years. We find the impact of tropical western Pacific on ISM subseasonal anomalies has strengthened, while the ISM self‐feedback has weakened. Wavenumber‐frequency analysis shows that the Rossby wave energy over 15°N–30°N at periods of 10–20 days has increased over the past four decades, which offers a plausible explanation for the enhanced tropical atmospheric teleconnection between western Pacific and ISM at subseasonal time scales.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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