CLIMATE-CHANGE-INDUCED TEMPORAL VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION INCREASES NITROGEN LOSSES FROM INTENSIVE CROPPING SYSTEMS: ANALYSIS WITH A TOY MODEL

Autor: Peter M. VITOUSEK, Xinping CHEN, Zhenling CUI, Xuejun LIU, Pamela A. MATSON, Ivan ORTIZ-MONASTERIO, G. Philip ROBERTSON, Fusuo ZHANG
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 3, Pp 457-464 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2095-7505
DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2022452
Popis: ● A simple model was used to evaluate how increasing temporal variability in precipitation influences crop yields and nitrogen losses. ● Crop yields are reduced and nitrogen losses are increased at current levels of precipitation variability. ● Increasing temporal variability in precipitation, as is expected (and observed) to occur with anthropogenic climate change will reduce yields and increase nitrogen losses further. A simple ‘toy’ model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted (and observed) to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health. The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake. Also, increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts. Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.
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