The predictive value of the modified AFP model for liver transplantation outcomes in multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Autor: Jingrui Wang, Jiaqi Bao, Rui Wang, Jiachen Hong, Lincheng Zhang, Qingyang Que, Shengjun Xu, Yongfeng Wu, Qifan Zhan, Yuchen Liu, Jimin Liu, Shusen Zheng, Sunbin Ling, Xiao Xu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: World Journal of Surgical Oncology, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1477-7819
DOI: 10.1186/s12957-023-02994-y
Popis: Abstract Background There is a lack of studies focusing on the benefit of liver transplantation (LT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with > 3 tumors. This study aims to establish a model to effectively predict overall survival in Chinese HCC patients with multiple tumors (> 3 tumors) who undergo LT. Methods This retrospective study included 434 HCC liver transplant recipients from the China Liver Transplant Registry. All HCC patients had more than 3 tumor nodules. Three selection criteria systems (i.e., AFP, Metroticket 2.0, and Up-to-7) were compared regarding the prediction of HCC recurrence. The modified AFP model was established by univariate and multivariate competing risk analyses. Results The AFP score 2 and the AFP score ≥ 3 groups had 5-year recurrence rates of 19.6% and 40.5% in our cohort. The prediction of HCC recurrence based on the AFP model was associated with a c-statistic of 0.606, which was superior to the Up-to-7 and Metroticket 2.0 models. AFP level > 1000 ng/mL, largest tumor size ≥ 8 cm, vascular invasion, and MELD score ≥ 15 were associated with overall survival. The 5-year survival rate in the modified AFP score 0 group was 71.7%. Conclusions The AFP model is superior in predicting tumor recurrence in HCC patients with > 3 tumors prior to LT. With the modified AFP model, patients likely to derive sufficient benefit from LT can be identified.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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