Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example

Autor: Linyi Wang, Yue Wu, Yin He, Yu Zhang
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMC Medical Research Methodology, Vol 24, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1471-2288
DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02282-7
Popis: Abstract Objective In order to facilitate the tracing of infectious diseases in a small area and to effectively carry out disease control and epidemiological investigations, this research proposes a novel spatiotemporal model to estimate effective reproduction number(Re)for infectious diseases, based on the fundamental concept of contact tracing. Methods This study utilizes the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Bishan District, Chongqing, China from 2015 to 2019. The study incorporates the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and aims to construct a Spatiotemporal Correlation Discrimination of HFMD. Utilizing ARC ENGINE and C# programming for the creation of a spatio-temporal database dedicated to HFMD to facilitate data collection and analysis. The scientific validity of the proposed method was verified by comparing the effective reproduction number obtained by the traditional SEIR model. Results We have ascertained the optimal search radius for the spatiotemporal search model to be 1.5 km. Upon analyzing the resulting Re values, which range from 1.14 to 4.75, we observe a skewed distribution pattern from 2015 to 2019. The median and quartile Re value recorded is 2.42 (1.98, 2.72). Except for 2018, the similarity coefficient r of the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019 were all close to 1, and p
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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