| Autor: |
Sungki Kim, Wonil Ko, Hyoon Nam, Chulmin Kim, Yanghon Chung, Sungsig Bang |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2017 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Nuclear Engineering and Technology, Vol 49, Iss 5, Pp 1063-1070 (2017) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1738-5733 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.net.2017.05.007 |
| Popis: |
This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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