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[Objective] The forest coverage rate of Fujian Province is as high as 66.8%, ranking first in China. To investigate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Fujian Province is the theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Methods] Based on the carbon storage module of PLUS model and InVEST model, relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and land use types in Fujian province during 2000—2020 was revealed, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in Fujian Province during 2020—2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t, respectively, indicating a downward trend year by years. The development and transformation of land by human activities was the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks, and the conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas was the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results showed that compared with 2020, carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection and urban development in 2030 would decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t, respectively. The ecological protection scenario was the only development scenario that reversed the decline in carbon stocks. Compared with 2020, the forest area had expanded by 1 900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage had increased by 2.08 ×107 t, which could effectively protect the ecology and meet the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. |
