| Autor: |
Akiko Nanri, Tohru Nakagawa, Keisuke Kuwahara, Shuichiro Yamamoto, Toru Honda, Hiroko Okazaki, Akihiko Uehara, Makoto Yamamoto, Toshiaki Miyamoto, Takeshi Kochi, Masafumi Eguchi, Taizo Murakami, Chii Shimizu, Makiko Shimizu, Kentaro Tomita, Satsue Nagahama, Teppei Imai, Akiko Nishihara, Naoko Sasaki, Ai Hori, Nobuaki Sakamoto, Chihiro Nishiura, Takafumi Totsuzaki, Noritada Kato, Kenji Fukasawa, Hu Huanhuan, Shamima Akter, Kayo Kurotani, Isamu Kabe, Tetsuya Mizoue, Tomofumi Sone, Seitaro Dohi, Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study Group |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2015 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 11, p e0142779 (2015) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1932-6203 |
| DOI: |
10.1371/journal.pone.0142779 |
| Popis: |
Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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