Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals

Autor:	Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jingyuan Li
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2024
Předmět:	time of emergence long‐term trends climate trends trend detection observational uncertainties internal variability Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809
Zdroj:	Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 14, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu:	article
ISSN:	1944-8007 0094-8276
DOI:	10.1029/2024GL109638
Popis:	Abstract Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and availability issues, for instance data gaps, changes in instrumentation, issues due to gridding and retrieval algorithms. Overlooking such deficiencies leads to misrepresentations of the time of emergence (ToE). We introduce a new definition of ToE that accounts for observational limitations, and show that significant corrections to the ToE may be necessary to achieve the same statistical confidence as would be afforded by omniscient knowledge. We also show how our method can inform future observational needs and observing systems design.
Databáze:	Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:	https://doaj.org/article/e65d1328ca31486699fb6154e6e282dd Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text View record in DOAJ