Viral genetics and transmission dynamics in the second wave of mpox outbreak in Portugal and forecasting public health scenarios

Autor: Rita Cordeiro, Constantino P. Caetano, Daniel Sobral, Rita Ferreira, Luís Coelho, Ana Pelerito, Isabel Lopes de Carvalho, Sónia Namorado, Dinis B. Loyens, Ricardo Mexia, Cândida Fernandes, José Miguel Neves, Ana Luísa João, Miguel Rocha, Luís Miguel Duque, Inês Correia, Teresa Baptista, Cláudia Brazão, Diogo Sousa, Paulo Filipe, Miguel Alpalhão, Fernando Maltez, Diana Póvoas, Raquel Pinto, João Caria, Rita Patrocínio de Jesus, Patrícia Pacheco, Francesca Peruzzu, Josefina Méndez, Luís Ferreira, Kamal Mansinho, João Vaz Alves, Joana Vasconcelos, João Domingos, Sara Casanova, Frederico Duarte, Maria João Gonçalves, Mafalda Brito Salvador, Mafalda Andresen Guimarães, Sueila Martins, Marvin Silva Oliveira, Daniela Santos, Luís Vieira, Maria Sofia Núncio, Vítor Borges, João Paulo Gomes
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Emerging Microbes and Infections, Vol 13, Iss 1 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 22221751
2222-1751
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635
Popis: In 2023, a second wave of the global mpox epidemic, which is mainly affecting men who have sex with men (MSM), was observed in some countries. Herein, we benefited from a large viral sequence sampling (76/121; 63%) and vast epidemiological data to characterise the re-emergence and circulation of the Monkeypox virus (MPXV) in Portugal during 2023. We also modelled transmission and forecasted public health scenarios through a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. Our results suggest that the 2023 mpox wave in Portugal resulted from limited introduction(s) of MPXV belonging to C.1.1 sublineage, hypothetically from Asia, followed by sustained viral transmission and potential exportation to other countries. We estimated that the contribution of the MSM high sexual activity group to mpox transmission was 120 (95% CrI: 30–3553) times higher than that of the low sexual activity group. However, among the high sexual activity group, vaccinated individuals likely contributed approximately eight times less [0.123 (95% CrI: 0.068–0.208)] than the unvaccinated ones. Vaccination was also linked to potential reduced disease severity, with a Mpox Severity Score of 6.0 in the vaccinated group compared to 7.0 in unvaccinated individuals. Scenario analysis indicated that transmission is highly sensitive to sexual behaviour, projecting that a slight increase in the MSM sub-population with high sexual activity can trigger new mpox waves. This study strongly supports that continued vaccination, targeted awareness among risk groups and routine genomic epidemiology is needed to anticipate and respond to novel MPXV threats (e.g. global dissemination of clade I viruses).
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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