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[Objective] The major function-oriented zones (MFOZs) play a strategic role in promoting the coordinated development of population, economy, society, resources, and environment. In response to the emerging trend of population shrinkage and more compact development of cities, it is necessary to review and evaluate the implementation of MFOZ and propose optimization suggestions. [Methods] This study used census and land survey data to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of population-land growth/shrinkage in counties of Hunan Province. It quantitatively analyzed the coordination between population and land from 2010 to 2020. Comparing the results with objectives set in the Hunan Province MFOZ Plan (2012), it summarized the characteristics of population-land changes under the MFOZ framework, which led to discussions on the future optimization direction of MFOZ. [Results] The study found that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, there were obvious differentiated development pathways of urban population growth/shrinkage in various counties of Hunan Province. Overall, urban land showed a growing trend, but the growth rate declined. (2) There was a widespread of population-land imbalance in the counties from 2010 to 2020. Many counties exhibited two mismatch trends: more population and less land (compact development), and less population and more land (expansive development). Both the counties with urban population growth lagging behind urban construction land growth and those with urban population growth slightly faster than urban construction land growth were observed. (3) Since its implementation in Hunan Province in 2012, although the MFOZ Plan has played the role of guiding coordinated development of population and land, there are still situations where the results are inconsistent with the development goals of the MFOZ. [Conclusion] Based on the analysis, this study explored optimization solutions for the MFOZ. On the one hand, from the perspective of population-land coordination, various types of MFOZ (urbanization areas, major agricultural production areas, and key ecological function areas) may have multiple development scenarios, and it is necessary to further refine their classification and propose multi-type development directions for Hunan Province. On the other hand, there is a bidirectional mechanism of influence between MFOZ types and urban land, as well as urban population. Future MFOZ planning needs to combine the population-land growth relationship derived from data analysis and propose optimization paths from the perspective of coordinated development between the two. |
