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[Objective] The increasingly complex and volatile international environment aggravates the instability of the global key metal supply chain. Assessing the key metal supply risks of strategic emerging industries provides an important reference for national resource security, the stable development of emerging industries and the prevention and control of exogenous risks. [Methods] This study took six major strategic emerging industries in China and 29 key metal minerals required as the research object, constructed a key metal supply risk assessment system for strategic emerging industries from three dimensions of availability, dependence, and affordability, and analyzed the supply risks of different key metals and their impact by major countries during 2011-2020, as well as the extent to which major products of strategic emerging industries are affected. [Results] (1) From 2011 to 2020, the supply risk of platinum group metals, hafnium and niobium is particularly prominent, and the supply risk of key metals such as nickel, cobalt, zirconium and lithium changes with the change of hot industries, and gradually increases in the later period; (2) Russia, Australia, the United States, Canada, Brazil affect the supply risk of more than 10 key metals in China, while South Africa, Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) affect the number of key metals is relatively small, but the impact is particularly high; (3) New materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, new generation of information technology four categories of strategic emerging industries are relatively vulnerable, especially catalysts, permanent magnets, lithium-ion batteries, aerospace equipment, electronic products are vulnerable to platinum group metals, hafnium, germanium, cobalt and other key metals. (4) Gallium, lead, rubidium, thallium and other key metals with small overall impact will have a greater impact on a few products, which is worth paying attention to. [Conclusion] With the increasing instability of the global supply chain of key metals, strengthening import and export control, refining data statistics, improving risk control mechanisms, building early warning platforms, strengthening technological innovation, and innovating resource utilization systems have enlightening significance and practical value for preventing and resolving exogenous risks and ensuring resource security and industrial security. |
