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BackgroundThe risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with hemodialysis remain not fully understood. In this study, we developed and validated a clinical-longitudinal model for predicting CVD in patients with hemodialysis, and employed Mendelian randomization to evaluate the causal 6study included 468 hemodialysis patients, and biochemical parameters were evaluated every three months. A generalized linear mixed (GLM) predictive model was applied to longitudinal clinical data. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to verify the effect of selected risk factors on the probability of CVD. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for CVD (n = 218,792,101,866 cases), end-stage renal disease (ESRD, n = 16,405, 326 cases), diabetes (n = 202,046, 9,889 cases), creatinine (n = 7,810), and uric acid (UA, n = 109,029) were obtained from the large-open GWAS project. The inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the main analysis to estimate the causal associations, and several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess pleiotropy and exclude variants with potential pleiotropic effects.ResultsThe AUCs of the GLM model was 0.93 (with accuracy rates of 93.9% and 93.1% for the training set and validation set, sensitivity of 0.95 and 0.94, specificity of 0.87 and 0.86). The final clinical-longitudinal model consisted of 5 risk factors, including age, diabetes, ipth, creatinine, and UA. Furthermore, the predicted CVD response also allowed for significant (p |
