A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation

Autor: Wen-Jing Zhu, Shou-Feng Shen, Wen-Xiu Ma
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Mathematics, Vol 10, Iss 14, p 2517 (2022)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 10142517
2227-7390
DOI: 10.3390/math10142517
Popis: In this paper, we would like to propose a (2+1)-dimensional fractional-order epidemic model with pulse jumps to describe the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The problem of identifying the involved parameters in the proposed model is reduced to a minimization problem of a quadratic objective function, based on the reported data. Moreover, we perform numerical simulation to study the effect of the parameters in diverse fractional-order cases. The number of undiscovered cases can be calculated precisely to assess the severity of the outbreak. The results by numerical simulation show that the degree of accuracy is higher than the classical epidemic models. The regular testing protocol is very important to find the undiscovered cases in the beginning of the outbreak.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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